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Turkey and Indonesia have seen their current account deficits balloon and their currencies plummet. The India rupee is down more than 20 % this year, most of that loss in the past quarter alone, as the country posted the worst growth in four years. Brazil and Indonesia have seen their currencies tumble 10 %, requiring central banks to use currency reserves and in some cases interest rate hikes to stop the bleeding. The tendency is for investors to make comparisons to the 1998/1999 Asian financial crisis, when those economies had wide current account deficits and a mountain of foreign currency government debt. Most of Asia learned a lesson, Marios Maratheftis, global head of macro research at Standard Chartered Bank told me. The bulk of emerging market debt is now issued in local currencies. Maratheftis said the sudden stop of capital flows to the emerging markets will create problems for those with widening current account deficits, but that this should not develop into a crisis provided there is a greater coordination of policies. He is not holding out great hope for the discussions in St. Petersburg. They talk global when they meet, he said of the G20. But act local when they go home.

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August 2026